FXUS65 KBOU 202117

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
317 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

There are a few wisps of high clouds over the CWA right now. The
strong northwesterly flow aloft will decrease over the CWA as an
upper ridge axis moves into western Colorado by the end of
Friday. The synoptic scale energy in benign tonight and Friday. A
pretty weak pressure gradient is progged in the lower levels and
the boundary layer winds should adhere to normal diurnal patterns.
There is a bit of upper level moisture on the cross sections
tonight into Friday morning, then almost none the rest of Friday.
No pops. For temperatures, Friday`s highs are 5-7 C warm then this

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Upper level high pressure over the Rocky Mountain Region will bring
above normal temperatures and dry weather to north central and
northeastern Colorado through the weekend. On Monday...the upper high
shifts east over the central plains states...as an upper trough
approaches the west coast of the United States. This pattern places
Colorado under a light to moderate southwesterly flow aloft.
Moisture caught up in this flow...combined with some orographic
lift...should result in scattered rain and snow showers in the
mountains. The plains should be dry and a little cooler due to
increased cloud cover. Slightly cooler weather is expected on
Tuesday as an upper level shortwave moves across the state and a
weak cold front moves across the northeastern plains. The latest GFS
run has trended upward with qpf on the plains...therefore have
raised pops somewhat for those areas. Models show broad upper ridge
building over the central and western U.S. by Wednesday. Model
guidance may be under estimating Thursday`s highs...therefore have
bumped temperatures up a couple of degrees, This still may be too
low and later shifts may need to raise temps more.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

The current east-southeasterly winds at DIA should give way to
drainage, south-southwesterlies, by 02Z. There will be very
little high cloudiness to no cloudiness.





NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion