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FXUS65 KBOU 071734
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1034 AM MST TUE FEB 7 2012

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHALLOW MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING. VERY WEAK
EASTERLY-UPSLOPE FLOW HAS ALL BUT ENDED ON THE PLAINS...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS RIGHT UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS MAINLY IN BOULDER AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES WHERE LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES. EVEN HERE WE
SHOULD SEE THIS PCPN ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH DRIER
AIR BEGINNING TO WORK DOWN THE EAST FACE OF THE FRONT RANGE AS
PER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. THAT SAID NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL MUCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVEN THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT UP ALONG THE WYOMING AND NEB BORDERS WHERE
THE LOW CLOUD CEILING HAS BEGUN TO BREAK. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER
CLOUD DISSIPATION...HAVE SHAVED BACK TODAY/S MAX TEMPS ON THE
PLAINS BY 1-2F. AS FOR MOUNTAIN AREAS ROUGHLY WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE ATTM.
HOWEVER COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PATCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING IN FROM
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. HIGHER PEAKS COULD ALSO SEE A  FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

.AVIATION...CEILINGS IN THE DENVER AREA UNDER A BLANKET OF STRATUS
AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK STILL PRODUCING LIGHT TO VERY LIGHT
SNOWFALL...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA AT
THIS HOUR. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL LIFT IN CEILINGS DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING
DOWN OFF THE FOOTHILLS. BY MID-AFTERNOON...EXPECT DENVER AREA
AIRPORT UNDER MVFR OR VFR CEILINGS WITH THE CLOUD LAYER BARELY
2000-3000 FEET THICK. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A TYPICAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERN BY
02Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM MST TUE FEB 7 2012/

SHORT TERM...CIRCULATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ELONGATED LOW
WRAPPED MOISTURE/LIFT BACK ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.  THE LIFT IS
FADING NOW AND COLDER/DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN AT LOW LEVELS...WHILE
SUBSIDENCE EDGES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DESPITE SOME DRYING...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER PERSISTING SUGGESTING WE MAY
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME STRATOCUMULUS AND FLURRIES MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND IN FACT THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF THIS UPSTREAM INTO SE
WYOMING AND THE NEB PANHANDLE.  WILL GO WITH FLURRY WORDING THIS
MORNING...THEN SHOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING SHOULD BE SQUASHING THE REMNANTS OF THE CLOUD
DECK.  AREAS WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD STILL HAVE SOME SHALLOW
CLOUD COVER AT LEAST THIS MORNING...THOUGH LESS THAN AREAS ON THE
EAST SIDE. BUMPED HIGHS UP A BIT TODAY GIVEN CURRENT
TEMPERATURES...BUT ONLY EXPECTING A SMALL RISE TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE.  TEMPERATURE PLUNGE WILL BE
LIMITED BY DRAINAGE WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS/DENVER AREA AND PROBABLY
EVEN SOME WIND ON THE PLAINS RIDGES...WHILE VALLEYS SHOULD HAVE
LIGHT WINDS.  GAVE SOME THOUGHT TO FOG BUT THINKING FROST MAY
PREDOMINATE WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.  RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED
ON EXPECTED WARMER HIGHS TODAY...MOISTURE REMAINING...AND A LITTLE
WIND AROUND DENVER.

LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN IT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT AND IS ZONAL BY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  ON THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS COLORADO...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT
THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS SHOW WEAK UPWARD
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WEAK DOWNWARD
MOTION IS PROGGED ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL BE PRETTY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIODS...MAINLY
ADHERING TO NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS.  THERE COULD BE SOME FAIRLY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR MOISTURE...WEDNESDAY
STARTS OUT PRETTY DRY...THEN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE DAY.  BY SUNSET...THERE IS PRETTY DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS.  THIS
CONTINUES MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE DECREASING BY DAWN
THURSDAY MORNING.  THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE PRETTY DRY.  THE
QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  FOR MOUNTAIN
POPS...THERE IS MOISTURE...WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY...AND HELP
FROM OROGRAPHICS.  HOWEVER THERE IS WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION.  WILL
GO WITH 30-40%S WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY.  NO POPS
FOR THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOR TEMPERATURES
..WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-7 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S.  THURSDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 0-1.5 C WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY`S.  FOR THE LATER DAYS...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
FRIDAY.  THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST FINALLY MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO ON SATURDAY.  THIS IS FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
ON SUNDAY.  ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED MONDAY.  MOISTURE IS LIMITED
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN IS THERE IS PLENTY ACROSS ALL THE CWA
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.  TEMPERATURES WARM SOMEWHAT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL.

AVIATION...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO LINGER THIS MORNING
THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY END BY MID MORNING...AND EXPECT VISUAL
APPROACHES TO KDEN AFTER 20-21Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER/GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...BAKER/GIMMESTAD

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion