000
FXUS65 KBOU 012100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE SWITCHING WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO WNW
BRINGING COOLER AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DECREASING WET BULB ZEROS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAVE
BROUGHT SNOW DOWN TO 8000-8500 FT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OVERNIGHT OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WHERE
YOU HAVE DECENT QG VV AND UPSLOPE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL END AT MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOLER AIR FROM A DISORGANIZED FRONT THAT WILL DROP DOWN INTO
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS DECENT LIFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LAPSE RATES OVER DENVER OF 8.6 C/KM BUT DUE TO LACK OF
MUCH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY LITTLE CAPE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS WITH WIND SPEEDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE PLAINS AND
40 MPH OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ABOVE TIMBERLINE. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING
BY MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

INITIALLY...A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A
STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT MARCHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE FROM 00Z THROUGH 12Z...BUT BOTH MODELS ALSO LIMIT ANY
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS SHOW ONLY A FEW HOURS OF
RISING VERTICAL MOTIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THEN
ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE. WILL MENTION ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING...IN CASE A
LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS IN WYOMING. THE COOL AIR MOVING INTO THE
STATE WILL LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY COULD BE NEARING THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME...ONLY THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
THAN 32. AFTER FRIDAY MORNING...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
BUILDING OVER COLORADO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
DRY AND MILD WILL BE THE PRIMARY MESSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL STEADILY START TO MOVE IN AS THE FRONT
MAKES IT WAY EASTWARD OFF THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER
WATCH FOR WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE AND STRONGER WITH GUSTING UP TO
20 MPH AND RAIN STARTING BETWEEN 20 AND 21Z. WITH THIS SECONDARY
PUSH OF COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DECREASE STARTING AROUND 21Z
TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL THEN BELOW 3000 BY 00Z. CONDITIONS SHOW
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 04Z WITH SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING IN LOW LYING
AREAS THEN SCATTERING OUT BY 16Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ031-
033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BOWEN

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion