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000
FXUS65 KBOU 212146 AAA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
247 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2008

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT DATA SHOWS A BIT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE FOG IS GONE NOW OUT ON THE PLAINS.  DECENT
NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS STARTING TO GET INTO THE
NORTHERN BORDER AREAS AND THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.   MODELS HAVE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT BECOMING WESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  JET LEVEL SPEEDS ARE IN THE 65 TO 90 KNOT RANGE BOTH
PERIODS.  WEAK DOWNWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY IS INDICATED FOR THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS MAY BE ALTERED SOMEWHAT TOWARDS DOWNSLOPING WITH LOW LEVEL
TROUGHING PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  FOR
MOISTURE...BOTH SATELLITE PICTURES AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW IT TO BE
PRETTY DRY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.  NO POPS.  CONCERNING FOG/
STRATUS...MODELS SHOW WARMING...NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MORE
TOWARDS DOWNSLOPING WIND PATTENS...NO FOG OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING.  CONCERNING A HIGH WIND THREAT...THERE IS A FAIR MOUNTAIN
TOP STABLE LAYER PROGGED TONIGHT INTO HALF OF SATURDAY.  THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT GREAT.  THE SPEED SHEAR OF THE CROSS
COMPONENT FLOW IS NOT GREAT FOR A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE EITHER.  WILL
LEAVE DECENT WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BUT NO
HIGHLIGHTS.  FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE ABOUT 3 C
WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S.

.LONG TERM...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.  THE RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE N OF COLORADO.  ONLY EFFECTS FROM
THIS WL INVOLVE GUSTY WINDS IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS WITH SLGTLY
COOLER AFTN TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY AND
WARMER BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
REBUILDS OVER THE STATE.  NEXT POTENTIAL CHANGE WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  NO CONSISTENCY ESTABLISHED WITH ANY OF THE MDLS
AT THIS TIME.  WL KEEP SLGT CHC OF PCPN IN THE MTNS ON THURSDAY...
...AND INTRODUCE 10 PERCENT POPS TO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$
RJK/FMC

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion